Fight or Flight? Are We Ready for an Avian Apocalypse

Published: March 25th, 2006

OK, so youve heard a bit about this bird-flu thing and seen pictures on television of Turkish children playing with chickens. But you're busy, healthy, you dont believe that Elvis is living on the moon and you're not a hypochondriac, so what's the big deal? The truth is that, behind these faintly surreal images from distant places lies a real and present danger of human catastrophe that could impact us all.  Immanently.  And as Christians who believe in the power of prayer we have a duty to prepare because we might need to 'comfort those that mourn' sooner than we think.
 
So here's your briefing...
 
Fact 1:
Since 1997 bird flu has killed tens of millions of birds. It is virulent - killing 100% of susceptible birds and 50% of humans who have contracted it. Particularly worrying is this fact that recently the H5N1 strain of the virus has begun to mutate and started affecting other animals and humans too. There have also been a few reported incidents of the virus spreading from human-to-human.
Fact 2:
Worryingly, researchers have recently discovered that the 1918 flu pandemic which wiped out 50 million people - mostly young adults - around the world, was in fact a bird flu...
Fact 3:
Pandemics tend to emerge every 25-30 years, usually when an animal virus mutates to affect humans in the way that this new strain of avian flu appears to be doing. The last global flu pandemic took place in 1968 so we are 'due' for another one.
Fact 4:
To help protect yourself wash your hands, get a flu shot (this wont protect you from avian flu but it could prevent complications) and if you live in affected countries avoid wild birds, and things like ice cream which may contain undercooked eggs.
 
Jesus tells us not to worry, and we shouldn't panic about avian flu. However Dr James Steckelberg, an infectious disease specialist at Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, USA says "The feeling among health officials and agencies worldwide is that it would be irresponsible not to be prepared, especially since we appear to be underprepared right now."
"The great worry - and this wasn't true in 1918 - is modern trans-portation"
H5N1 (the bird flu subtype that is the greatest cause for concern) seems to be affecting more and more species, including cats, which usually aren't susceptible to bird flu, and pigs, which traditionally have been a species that acts as a "mixing bowl" for viruses transmitted between birds and people. But whether this virus will ever make the genetic changes needed to infect humans on a mass scale, or how long that might take — there's just no way of knowing.
 
"At least for now," says Dr Steckelberg (left), "the virus hasn't discovered how to effectively move from human to human. If the virus mutates enough so that it spreads quickly among people, the great worry — and this wasn't true in 1918 — is modern transportation. Theoretically, infected people could board a plane and unwittingly carry the virus to the other side of the world in a matter of hours."
 
A Christian response
Jesus tells us to be wise as serpents but innocent as doves (perhaps an apt metaphor as we talk about bird flu).
 
Let us therefore be wise and prepare practically and prayerfully for the possibility - however terrifying - of such a global pandemic. Whenever there has been a massive outpouring of global prayer such as the one we are all part of right now the demonic powers have often been unleashed on a global scale too.
 
But let us also be innocent as doves - peaceful not panicking, trusting not terrified, avoiding hype and living each day as if it will be our last.
 
Come Lord Jesus.

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